Mr. Focus's encircling a position/point

Lyle Brady
June 9, 2022

Mr. Focus's encircling a position/point

Guangdong extended meeting of the Standing Committee (57 minutes):

According to the recording—“All leaders, according to the spirit of the Central Military Commission of the State Council’s instructions on transition from peacetime to wartime”, the Central Military Commission and the State Department accepted “Xi’s instruction on transition from peacetime to wartime”.

“Xi’s instruction”[1] is the supreme instruction in China and more concise and rigorous than “the spirit of Xi’s speech”[2].

“Peacetime to wartime transition” in the recording means Xi officially announced that China is already in a wartime transitional period, which can also be regarded as a period of preparation for a war.

Where is going to start a war? Or where is the focus of this war? Lawrence Sellin, Li-Meng Yan and Ding-Gang Wang.

The article written by Lawrence Sellin, LiMeng Yan and DingGang Wang referred: China plans to destroy the U.S. Indo-Pacific First and Second Island Chain defense structure. [3]

So we can conclude that the war will take place within the range of the blue circle in the picture below.

blue-cicle

So why will the war take place within the range of the blue circle?

Because the range of blue circle is the coverage circle of “encircling a position/point to annihilate the enemy’s reinforcement”, which is north to Ishigaki Island and Miyako Island in Japan, east to Guam, south to the north coast of the Philippines and west to the east coast of Taiwan.

The position/point refers to Taiwan, the enemy’s reinforcement refers to the US military (as for Japan, Australia or other countries in NATO, written in other articles).

Based on the intelligence from Lude media and long term research to Xi, it can be expected that Xi is not going to use Blitzkrieg to occupy Taiwan before the US military’s reinforcement, but use a method to lockdown the sea area around Taiwan to focus core military forces on "US military’s reinforcement ".

Steps as follows

  1. Surround Taiwan

    Through surface, underwater, air and shore based forces, lock down the sea area around Taiwan on behalf of military exercises, scientific expeditions, fishery disputes and ownership of Okinotori Island, etc.

  2. Confront US military

    Accompanying the Air Force, based on the aircraft carrier battle group as the core, deploy the maritime force in the high seas around Taiwan to confront the US military. The PLA’s aircraft circled Taiwan and the aircraft carrier, the LiaoNing, exercised on Okinotori Island exposed CCP’s aim.

  3. Annihilate the reinforcement/ Control Taiwan

    Depending on the changes of the situation in Taiwan and the international community’s attitude to implement the next step.

If the US military tries to break through the lock down, the PLA will start and escalate the war.

If the US military concedes or compromises to the CCP, then it’s easy for them to make full use of forces to occupy Taiwan, whose confidence has nearly collapsed at that time.

Throughout Mao's war history, in the military case of "encircling a position/point to annihilate the enemy’s reinforcement", as long as the reinforcements were defeated or escaped, the "position/point" will be conquered ultimately. Such as "the siege of Changchun". Mao once said the siege of the city is one of the most important methods to annihilate enemies.

encircling a position/point to annihilate the enemy’s reinforcement

The reason for "encircling a position/point to annihilate the enemy’s reinforcement"

A. In moral level The hope of breaking through the lock down to Taiwan is the US military. If Xi chooses the strategy of "encircling a position/point to annihilate the enemy’s reinforcement", and then the US military refuses to participate in or just confront the PLA without fighting, the belief of people in Taiwan can be easily collapsed. And it will be easier for Xi to occupy an intact Taiwan without causing too much blood and injury.

B. In military level If it’s inevitable to fight against the US military, there will be greater advantages to actively start the war than passively reacting to it. Instead of using the strategy of "landing on two front lines against Taiwan and letting the US military wait for an opportunity to win", it’s better to lockdown Taiwan and focus core military forces on fighting against the reinforcement of the US military. (this is meaning of “deployment of elite forces in advance”, “拒止歼敌” and “participation in support of front-line operations” in Guangdong recording) Once the PLA wins the war or defeats the US military, Taiwan will surrender actively.

C. In Security level Because Taiwan Strait is relatively close to the mainland of China, once the war happens, it’s easy to cause accidental affect to coastal cities Pushing the battlefield between the first island chain and the second island chain forward by 800 to 1500 kilometers can greatly improve the protection of coastal cities. And Xi will gain 5 times the strategic depth.

D. Lessons from Russia If the United States copies the "Ukrainian model" and transfers weapons and equipment through the east coast of Taiwan, Taiwan will become a long-lasting battlefield and Xi will lose the chance to use the strategy of "encircling a position/point to annihilate the enemy’s reinforcement ". The lessons of Russia's blitzkrieg in Ukraine told Xi that the surround and confrontation must be taken before the war starts, which means priority to block down Taiwan for a period of time and then decide whether to start the war. If Xi doesn't even have the ability to lock down Taiwan, he will not take caustic action. The amphibious landing exercise of the 71st Group Army in the early this month was actually a trick and could be ignored.

Conclusion

Surround Taiwan, confrontation and encircle a position/point (Taiwan) to annihilate the enemy’s reinforcement (US military) is the core aim and strategy of “mobilizing the whole people” and “strategic victory” in Guangdong extended meeting of the Standing Committee

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