Bobby's Concise Analysis
Bobby's Concise Analysis
Interpretation and Analysis
Interpretation and Analysis of the Recording of "514 Guangdong Provincial Committee of the Communist Party of China on Peace-to-War Conversion Mobilization Meeting"
Let me begin with a brief background on the timing and the context of the recording.
The meeting was held on May 14, 2022 in the Southern Theater Command of Guangzhou in Beijing time, and was publicly disclosed by Lude Media on May 14, 2022 in New York time. From the ending of the meeting to the content of the meeting to the hands of Mr. Lude in just a few hours, this information is the highest level of military confidential meeting ever obtained and made public since the founding of the Chinese Communist Party ( CCP ). After the disclosure of the recording, the Xi authorities were so frightened and outraged that they secretly arrested and executed a number of Military Officers, including Lieutenant General and Major General.
I will provide a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence based on its overall perspective, the key figures and the role of Guangdong in this military war that Xi is about to initiate.
To start with, there is a military concept of the CCP that all of us should clarify before we analyze it, namely: Military Ideology and Strategic Approach.
The Military Ideology of the Communist Party of China not only covers the entire military field, but is also closely related to the socio-political, economic, cultural, scientific and technological fields, etc. In the Military Conference of the Central Military Commission held in Beijing in 2019, the "Xi Jinping China Military Strategic" was officially established as the fundamental guiding ideology of strategy in the new Era. At the same time, the intelligence of weapons and equipment has been upgraded, and all types of precision-guided weapons have gradually become the main battlefield protagonists; the command and control automation has benefited from the development of the Data Link, which they call "the nerve center of command automation". The battle space has expanded from the traditional three-dimensional space of land, sea, and air towards the five-dimensional space of land, sea, air, sky, and electricity (magnetism), and this five-dimensional collaborative operation, coupled with the integration of various high-tech information and data links, is known as the system-to-system "joint cooperation". In other words, " integrated joint operations system ".
A White Paper on National Defense, issued by the Chinese Communist Party in July 2019, also indicated that the military strategic policy in the new era, persisted in the principles of defense (prevention), self-defense, and the strategy of gaining mastery by striking second (posterior strategy). It is emphasized on the unification of war containment and wars winning, and on the unification of strategic defense and tactical combat offense. Especially for the construction of cyberspace forces (hackers), it is necessary to build a strong cyberspace force, and to have a strong attitude toward Taiwan that "China must be unified and will be re-unified".
In summary it is quite clear that Xi has already begun to prepare militarily for a strike towards Taiwan and even the United States and its allies from 2019. All of the Chinese Communist Party's sinnister efforts over the past few years, including the releasing of the Virus, are all aimed at gaining time and space for military preparations in the war that they are preparing to initiate.
Let's start with a key name of a person mentioned in this recording, his position and background work division, etc., so that we will have a better understanding of the content of this recording.
Zhang Hu, Deputy Secretary of Guangdong Provincial Party Committee, Secretary of Provincial Political and Law Commission, Executive Vice Governor and Deputy Secretary of the Party Group, is responsible for Political and Law Commission, Development and Reform Commission, Treasury and Taxation Department, Emergency Management, Judicial System, Development of Military-Civilian Confusion, Counterpart Aid, Fire-fighter Bureau, Earthquake Bureau, Southern Power Grid, the Railway Department and China Southern Airlines. With great power in his hands, his authority has actually exceeded that of Governors and Provincial Party Secretaries. This person was punished with a major misconduct for the Shenzhen landslide in July 2016, but instead of being demoted or being marginalized, he was promoted to his current position in February 2022, which illustrates that this person is extremely valuable to Xi Jinping.
According to the recording, he was the representative of the first local official to convey to the military leaders the "National Mobilization Directive and the spirit of the instructions of the State Council Central Military Commission on the transition from peacetime to wartime system", and clarified the tasks of Guangdong Province in this war, the major priorities of the work direction, the mission of Guangdong, etc., and also put forward a series of specific requirements. Following the rules and processes of the senior meeting in the CCP military, the one who is the first to convey the spirit of the superior instructions is one of the core leaders in the implementation of the details of that meeting. So I think he will be the principal leader of this war in coordinating the entire guarantee of local resources.
(Since ancient times in China, the Emperor was extremely worried that if his commanding officers did not listen to the Emperor's orders or did not follow the Emperor's battle strategy or mutinied and were not under control, so a trusted local official was assigned to the army with the power of logistical and back-up support to control and supervise the army up ahead, this person commonly known as the " Military Governor ").
Let's take a closer look at the 57-minute recording and highlight the key points from this recording for a better analysis later.
This recording is an extraordinary, unique, and invaluable resource of "strategic intelligence" and an essential part of Xi's war preparations. Based on my personal experience and sensitivity to the classified documents of the army, I have listened to this recording over and over again and analyzed the transcript. I have extracted four key words and unfolded them for analysis, and I also hope that all of you will actively discuss them.
There are four key concepts: "Guangdong's mission", "Guangdong's responsibilities", " Resources Guarantee (and protection)" and "Strategic Decision victory".
I personally have concluded that this meeting is all about these four terms, and how to completely understand and analyze and interpret these four terms accurately is the key to our interpretation of this intelligence. From the specific Guangdong military strength requirements, armed forces establishment, combat deployment, battlefield readiness and war trends, transportation, resource guarantees ( back-up resources), war mobilization capabilities, and nuclear, biological and chemical staffing deployment mentioned in the recording, we can roughly predict the strategic intention, strategic orientations, and some of the tactical operations of the Chinese Communist military.
Xi has made Guangdong as the Base this time, and believes that Guangdong Province can play a key role in launching and triggering strikes against Taiwan and Japan, as well as breaking the first, second and third Island Chain and striking the U.S. mainland directly and thoroughly, so as to achieve a "Integration Strategy War”, thus forcing the U.S. and its allies to abandon Taiwan, ditch Asia, besiege Japan, divide the U.S. and its allies, break the post-World War II global order, and to grasp the lifeline of the South China Sea along the Taiwan Strait, thereby achieving the purpose of controlling Asia, reshaping geopolitics, and partitioning the world with Russia.
Let's go down the list of four terms.
The "Guangdong mission" mentioned in the recording refers to the assignment of Guangdong in this war preparation as well as the future wars and the specific implementation measures to ensure the success of the missions. The specific approaches are as follows.
The establishment of a joint Military-Civil Command Organ. The conversion of the systems and management transition from peacetime to wartime on the joint Military-Civil side at the same time. Full support of the entire society, all personnel, and all government functions, and the country's commitment into the war preparation.
In the event of armed rebellion, insurrection or overthrow against Taiwan or other countries, Guangdong acts as the frontline command post for this operation, completing a series of operations and cooperation such as operational plotting and dispatching manpower.
Once the war begins, various emergency management mechanisms must be activated. People in Guangdong are quarantined and locked down at home by way of anti-pandemic and are not allowed to leave their homes unless required, etc.
The establishment of the National Defense Mobilization System. This system is not only to mobilize civilians, retired soldiers and militias to join the army, but more importantly to enforce the recruitment of various potential resources, such as economic, material, transportation and technological, etc., to realize a nation-wide network to inquire all items and personnel that can be used for war, and to make all the records so that they can be recruited at any time, and continuous follow-up support after the first batch is quickly put in place.
Assembling all kinds of high-quality combat in novel domains and capabilities from multiple provinces and cities (including the various mobilization potential resources mentioned above) in Guangdong, these resources can be used effectively and quickly for the war purpose.
As mentioned before, Guangdong was a relatively important part of this external war, and from my personal opinion, Guangdong played the role of " absolute-logistics support", "absolute-tactical cooperation", "absolute-service war", and even "absolute-drawing fire power of the enemy" to cooperate with this war. "absolute logistical support", "absolute tactical cooperation", "absolute service to the war", and even "absolute fire drawing from the enemy" to cooperate with the war. From Zhang Hu's three suggestions for the "Guangdong mission", we can also briefly analyze some of the "tactical operations" of the other provinces' Attack Forces.
1、Front preparation and Direction of the war. The main orientations of Guangdong in this war were the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
(1) On the Taiwan Strait is, in brief, to facilitate the rapid deployment to block the Taiwan Strait, and even to the encircling islands (2) On the South China Sea, the focus should be to protect the front push, the South China Sea islands as missile or prospective carriers bases, due to the Guangdong's geographical advantage for the realization of the front deployment of Strategic Decisive Victory is irreplaceable.
2、To the Taiwan Strait's combat protection. “Ensure replenishment of soldiers, ensure forward push, ensure loading, ensure ferrying, and ensure island landing. The speaker mentioned several times the problem of shortage of replenishment, time is so tight that within 1 month 15,500 soldiers have to be assembled, and big data has to be used for filtering, and the recruitment conditions for new recruits are also very flexible, such as medical examination at different places, and then immediate reporting to the army, and even requesting all government departments to give the green light for new recruits to the maximum degree.
The four words " ensure " are the meaning of “promise to success”, and also vaguely seem to show that the CCP PLA( The People’s Liberation Army, Chinese Army ) has a kind of winnable confidence in the war in the Taiwan Strait, where does this blind confidence come from? We can only boldly speculate on the basis of the information provided in the recording so far. In order to safely push these weapons and equipment, armed soldiers to the effective range of attack, to secure these soldiers and military equipment to the designated area, and eventually to successfully secure the delivery of these to Taiwan Island. The loading instruments that need to be used are those mentioned in the recording to be disguised by 10,000-ton ro/ro ships, civilian aircrafts, train carriages, etc. So will there be submarines or other military strategic weapons that will cooperate in the process of the forward push? We need to get further tactical intelligence to interpret.
3、For South China Sea War Zone security. To fill the blind spot, maintain rights and interests, aid transportation, protect the islands and reefs, and control the Sea. I want to focus on the "blind spot". As long as the objects that can show up on the surface of the sea are probably to have been seen by the United States and allied countries, what is the "blind spot" in the South China Sea? It can only be a spot that even satellites can't see, it could only be the seabed. We should remember that the U.S. Navy Seawolf-class nuclear submarine "Connecticut" hit an unidentified object in the South China Sea. Then the Marine Surveyor “Mary Sears” conducted a rapid mapping operation in the southeastern waters of the Dongsha Islands, which was described as a "blind spot" by Chinese experts. This is a speculation that the PLA's blind spot is not a submarine mapping, but a large number of water barriers in the South China Sea in order to prevent the U.S. submarines from going to the South China Sea, and it is estimated that the operation has been secretly implemented for a long time. Only by preventing the US submarine enter, the CCP’s fishing boats, ro-ro ships, and fake cargo vessels of military and civilian fusion can play their great superiority, such as blocking the sea surface, stopping the U.S. carriers or warships from entering the South China Sea, and even controlling and blocking the whole South China Sea and the South Philippines Sea.
In general, the mission of the Guangdong mission is to provide solid logistical support for Xi's "strategic victory" and to work with the main force of the war.
The terms " Guangdong responsibility" and "Guangdong mission" seem to be very similar in Chinese, but I think there is a fundamental difference. In a normal context, the word " responsibility" refers to a kind of obligation or duty, but in China under the rule of the CCP, the word is given a strong political color, and if a superior ( national, institutional, community) puts forward a task or mission to a subordinate that contains the word "responsibility", it implies that such tasks are unavoidable and must do their best to accomplish it. Moreover it is not possible to find objective reasons, all difficulties must be overcome by subordinates, and sometimes it is even necessary to break the bottom line of human rights or pay the price of life.
The term "Guangdong responsibility" first emerged in 2020, when 90% of the country's inbound population was concentrated in Guangdong, quarantined nearly 30,000 people per day, and as well as bearing a significant quantity of goods entering and leaving the country worldwide, someone said Guangdong is standing at the door blocking the virus for the country, and security for the country. As a result, "Guangdong responsibility" as a national slogan was known publicly, the whole country imitated it, and a variety of "regional responsibility" also followed.
Since I had previous experience as a typing secretary in the army, and often participated in a large number of General Branch ( Division and Regiment ) level documents uploading, document drafting, printing, sending, interpretation, etc., I am extremely sensitive to the content of military documents (I have talked about this in Lude Media membership program), when the Chinese Communist Party meets or issues documents, in order to avoid being blamed, they will hide or replace important instructions or specific implementation steps with special military language, in the practical implementation is usually informed or interpreted by superiors to subordinates, or superiors' secretaries to subordinates directly (face to face), then my personal understanding and interpretation of "Guangdong responsibility" may have the following meanings.
As the major Logistics supply, manpower and equipment support base for the war launched by Xi against the First Island Chain, Guangdong is a significant war component. The war is going to use or exhaust a lot of resources, so Guangdong Province has to overcome the difficulties by itself to ensure the demands of its superiors are accomplished, so it is called a kind of responsibility.
Due to its geographical location, Guangdong Province is a strategic decisive location for the CCP's key military bases, front command posts, and forward deployment areas. If the CCP were to launch an attack against the United States and its Allies, there would be a strong counterattack, so Guangdong Province must be prepared to withstand the 61 key military targets and 276 key civilian targets mentioned in the recording, and bear the consequences of the resulting military and civilian casualties and any other unnecessary sacrifices.
There are four nuclear power plants in Guangdong, and the recording has repeatedly emphasized the use of nuclear, biological and chemical protection and rescue forces, probably mainly because of the consideration of whether these nuclear power plants have the anti-attack capability confronting the U.S. and its allies, and if they are unfortunately attacked, the CCP will deploy nuclear, biological and chemical protection and rescue forces to respond, in order to reduce the casualties caused by nuclear leakage or nuclear contamination, and Guangdong Province has to be very prepared for this. However, in order to achieve the goal of Strategic Victory (the nuclear issue will be explained in detail later in "Strategic Victory" Part), it cannot be ruled out that the CCP will destroy the nuclear power plant and frame the West countries in order to reverse the unfavorable public opinion or war situation. In this case, Guangdong Province should be prepared to sacrifice massive numbers of civilians.
As the situation evolves, when the Communist Party believes that it is bound to lose the war and becomes a war criminal, it must respond to possible landing battles by the United States and its allies, with the aim of slowing down the Allied advance, the CCP may use the " strategy of trading space for time" that has been used in the past, which is based on the self-destruction of key military targets and important facilities in the vicinity, see Zhu Jiahua's "scorched earth resistance" and “the Huayuankou embankment breach incident. (1938 Yellow River flood)” Furthermore, it is possible that the CCP will self- destroy key military facilities and important civilian facilities in order to destroy evidence of war crimes. If such an event were to take place, it would be catastrophic for the surrounding civilian population, and this is a price that Guangdong Province has to bear.
Therefore, the "Guangdong mission" is the obligation of Guangdong Province at the level of war mobilization; the "Guangdong responsibility" is the ability to deal with counterattacks by the United States and its allies after the Chinese Communist Party provokes a war.
Resources Guarantee (and protection)
For this " integrated" war initiated by Xi, Guangdong provided and coordinated almost all strategic resources, from Space Support, Information, Communication, Networks, Personnel, Materials, Mobilization of all types of personnel Units, Strategic Weapons, Ships, Aircraft etc., with a total of 239 kinds of preparations in 20 categories, as well as the assembly of 140,000 logistical support personnel from various fields, besides the recruitment of 15,500 new recruits. Also, in order to support front-line operations and stabilize the local population, 6,000 armed police officers will be dispatched, as well as a large number of public security, firefighting, and emergency management personnel, and even nuclear, biological, and chemical forces. These are all called " war supplies (personnel) preparation or reserve".
The recording refers to resource security, literally, as "combat material security capability.” In recent years, the CCP has been engaged in research on how logistics can be adapted to modern warfare. Modern warfare materiel reservation is the result of the use of modern information technology to improve the management of security capabilities. The high level of transparency on the modern battlefield means that warfare security material faces the threat of " discovered and then destroyed". Therefore, the CCP has already changed the traditional warfare materiel and reserve security capability very early, they use information technology such as Internet of Things, Big Data, Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, etc., focusing on strengthening resource control, high-speed delivery capability and the ability to recover promptly, thereby forming a complete closed loop. Realize the forecasting of information systems for all kinds of battlefields, utilize the Military-civil Fusion, and accomplish transportation tasks by using national logistics information for all the resources such as Railroad, Waterway, Highway, and Airlines.
Meanwhile, the logistic support resources of the CCP changed from the previous "centralized allocation" to "decentralized allocation", and the logistics support department relied on “resources scattered in different locations” to provide and meet the support needs of " different places and decentralized battlefields", significantly improve the effectiveness of logistical security, is also the manifestation of "new domain new system" "multi-domain gathering of excellence" that mentioned in the recording. The application of a large number of drones on the intelligent battlefield not only allows for tactical reconnaissance applications, but also allows for real-time adjustments to logistical resources, security plans and operations, and synchronized preparation and implementation with combat.
The above is just a reference to the new model of logistical resource security for modern warfare in the CCP, and at the same time confirms the requirements and guarantees of the warfare network mentioned several times in the conference recording.
Strategic Decisive victory
The "Strategic Decisive Victory" literally means that Xi personally planned, personally commanded, personally deployed, and personally implemented a large-scale war, and the ultimate decision of victory or defeat was his military strategic ideology.
From the Unrestricted Biowar, public opinion war in the media, diplomatic war, Sino-Russian alliance, Russian invasion of Ukraine, and until now, the CCP is going to prepare aggressively for war in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea and East China Sea, and even threaten the U.S. mainland with nuclear weapons in order to force the U.S. out of the First Island Chain, all are directed, elaborated and proactively deployed by Xi behind the scenes.
When we search for the term "Strategic Victory" in China's websites, all the related news will show "DF 41” TBM is a unique defending strategic weapon for the motherland", and always with many pictures or videos of "DF 41" missiles. So does this lead us to assume that the big weapon capable of guaranteeing the ultimate "Strategic Victory" that Xi has mentioned at many military meetings is the DF 41 TBM? After all, all of China's social media are controlled by the CCP, and what the top leaders say must be interpreted by these media, just as Communist Party military documents must be interpreted by their secretaries.
So combined with what is mentioned in this recording that "resource security, and Strategic Victory" is the mission of Guangdong, it is easier to understand that Guangdong is mainly engaged in the implementation of resource security tasks for Xi's "strategic victory" goal.
According to intelligence previously revealed by Lude Media, the CCP has positioned nuclear-armed DF 41 missiles in Mohe, Heilongjiang, which can hit the U.S. mainland in 18 minutes via the North Pole. The CCP wants to manipulate the idea that the U.S. and its allies think they are afraid to use nuclear weapons. Would it be possible that the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and East China Sea are just to attract the military power of the United States and its allies? Thus, the West would misjudge and then the CCP would suddenly launch a nuclear strike against the US mainland? The Chinese have only promised not to be the first to use nuclear weapons, but they have not said they will not use them, so they will certainly fabricate reasons to use them.
Of course, there is an equally high possibility that Xi will choose to use nuclear weapons against the U.S. mainland if he uses various rogue and despicable means in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and East China Sea using ro-ro boats, fishing boats, and suicide civil aircraft or fighter jets to achieve his desired strategic goals, such as invading Taiwan, defeating Japan, driving the U.S. out of the first island chain, and joining forces with Russia to redraw the world.
Finally, I would also like to clarify a tactical term mentioned in the recording, "forward deployment. Let's imagine that if the CCP wants the "strategic decisive victory" to play a major role at a critical moment, the deployment of these powerful weapons to the closest distance to the target is indispensable, and ultimately, the "strategic decisive victory" weapons are "forward-deployed "to the islands and reefs. In addition to the DF 41 nuclear missiles deployed in Mohe, Heilongjiang province mentioned in the above articles, the CCP could also break through the first and second island chains forward to the third island chain, or cross the third island chain to be closer to the US, and then release deadly weapons from the second or third island chain to attack the US and its allies mainland. Including the Okinotori islands and reefs, it is likely that they are also the targets where they intend to achieve military forward deployment, and once they deploy their heavy killers to these islands and reefs, they will inevitably strike a strategic intimidation or even a strategic decisive nuclear strike against Japan and Australia. The U.S. and its allies will also need to be requested to make a quick and correct judgment of Xi's strategic intentions and tactical moves through intelligence and reconnaissance.
The above is my personal understanding and interpretation of the content of the recorded speech, and I invite you to actively participate in the discussion. In addition, through the interpretation of the recording, can we continue to extend and expand the discussion?
From this analysis, it is easy to see that Guangdong is only a strategic component of Xi's strategy to win this war as a whole, but to be precise, Guangdong is not the main tactical implementer of this war, but only the strategic provider. Xi wants Guangdong to suffer this sacrifice, so what will be the burden of provinces like Heilongjiang, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Hainan, which are suspected to have been set up by Xi for tactical strikes? Once the U.S. and its allies find out that there are potential attack weapons or tactical implementers in these places, how will these regions be hit and what kind of burden will the people of these places suffer? What can be done to avoid such a disaster?
On an economic level, the GDP of Guangdong and the southeastern coastal provinces has always been at the top of the country. If this war is fought, the economic impact on these provinces and the whole country is incalculable, and what price will the whole Chinese people have to pay for it?
Guangdong province in this "strategic security" needs to provide ro-ro ships, drones, aircraft, train carriages, personnel security, etc., regardless of whether the war can achieve the purpose of Xi, the cost is bound to be tragic, the economic costs and losses are incalculable. To what extent would the standard of living and consumption of the people suffer? For the people who have enjoyed food and clothing, how will the psychological, material and spiritual fallout bring hidden dangers to society?
How will the world view the Chinese if the Communist Party provokes and distorts the facts, diverts domestic conflicts, and unleashes hundreds of millions of Chinese people or overseas Chinese to make verbal attacks on the U.S.-led Western countries, or even conduct demonstrations or attacks on embassies, consulates and foreigners in China, etc.? How can the people at home know in advance the real purpose of Xi's war? Will he do it for the people or for himself?
No matter whether the war launched by Xi is won or lost, as long as the war is fought, the Chinese people are the biggest losers, no matter from the economy, life, education, employment, international image ....
The Chinese people will be excluded from the world and their living space will be squeezed in the future. How can we make overseas Chinese really aware of the coming dangerous situation and not to be CCP's helper and war mouthpiece overseas, to influence the Chinese and foreigners around us and tell them that Chinese people are good and we are firmly against this war started by the Xi Communist Party?
In conclusion, these are the concerns that we need to think about and investigate.